Really? Again?

A few weeks ago, from the stage at our most recent TruMethods Peer meetings, I shared where I believe the MSP market is headed. We discussed how AI-driven changes will impact both MSPs and their customers.

My perspective comes from weekly conversations with venture capital firms, private equity investors, MSP leaders, software companies, and channel partners. I get a lot of signals from different parts of the market, and the data is beginning to paint a picture of what may lie ahead. I’ll share more about the trends, the supporting data, and the variables that remain uncertain in future blogs.

For now, I want to focus on something unexpected: the reaction from MSP leaders.

No one knows exactly how the next few years will unfold, but most of us agree on one thing: major changes are coming. The current MSP business model is aging, while the next model is still taking shape. What makes this transition unique is that many of the forces driving change are coming from our customers. Their businesses are changing, and that will inevitably change ours.

I tried to frame this as both a risk and an opportunity. The next few years may create some of the greatest opportunities our industry has ever seen for leaders who understand the shifts and adapt quickly.

The message clearly resonated. I received a tremendous amount of feedback, and many Peer groups spent significant time discussing the implications for their businesses. Mission accomplished.

What surprised me was who seemed most energized—and who didn’t.

I assumed the larger, more mature MSPs would be the most excited. After all, they have stronger leadership teams, better systems, more resources, and more experience navigating change. I thought smaller MSPs might feel overwhelmed by the uncertainty.

In some cases, that was true.

But many of the larger MSP leaders seemed a little defeated.

They’ve spent years building great businesses. They’ve transformed themselves multiple times already. They’ve invested heavily in leadership, operations, security, compliance, and growth. Many thought they were entering a period where they could continue executing their strategy, increase value, and eventually sell on their own timeline.

Now they’re looking at another major transformation and asking a different question:

“Do I really want to do this again?”

Some are beginning to reassess their plans. The uncertainty of the next two to four years may be causing them to reconsider their timeline and evaluate whether reducing risk through some type of exit event makes sense.

Ironically, many of the smaller MSPs had the opposite reaction.

Because they have fewer customers, fewer employees, and less organizational complexity, they can often change direction more quickly. They don’t have as much to protect. They see disruption as an opening rather than a threat. As leaders, they can personally drive much of the transformation required.

The more I thought about it, the more I realized this wasn’t really a story about AI.

It’s a story about where leaders are in their journey.

Those who have already climbed the mountain are wondering if they want to climb another one. Those still making the ascent see a new path to the summit.

That response felt counterintuitive at first, but perhaps it shouldn’t have. Throughout history, periods of technological disruption have reshuffled industries in unexpected ways. The incumbents often have more resources, but challengers frequently have more hunger, flexibility, and willingness to reinvent themselves.

It has left me wondering whether the next chapter of the MSP industry will create a new generation of market leaders.

Stay tuned. I think we’re just beginning to see how these changes will unfold.

Related: Business owners are asking AI to find their next IT company. Are you coming up?